Milan - San Remo 2026: Favourites
fotobureau Cor VosFor years, Tadej Pogacar has been on a mission: to win Milan–San Remo. While he seems to win almost everything he enters, that particular prize has so far eluded him, mostly because Mathieu van der Poel stood in his way. Will the world champion finally succeed this year? And how will he go about it?
First published: 12 March 2026
Over the past three editions, Alpecin–Deceuninck have taken the victory, on all occasions after a starring role from Mathieu van der Poel. Two years ago he piloted Jasper Philipsen to the win, while on the other two occasions he triumphed himself — three years ago with a solo from the Poggio, and last year by outsprinting Filippo Ganna and Tadej Pogacar on the Via Roma in San Remo.
Last year’s edition was a special one, as Pogasar launched his attack as early as the Cipressa. The reiging world champion and four time Tour de France winner has long been trying to add La Primavera to his palmarès, but without success. That prompted him to use the Cipressa as a launch pad with around 20 kilometres to go. Only Van der Poel and Ganna could follow. Yet no matter how hard he tried, Pogacar could not drop the Dutchman, and Van der Poel went on to win the sprint on the Via Roma.
A fair question is: how can Pogacar shake off Van der Poel this year? The answer may well lie in creating a numerical advantage. If Pogacar manages to be left with his team mate Isaac del Toro and Van der Poel, the pair could take turns putting the double MSR winner under pressure. That would mean taking a risk, though: if Van der Poel cracks just as Del Toro attacks, Pogacar could hardly lead the chase behind his own super-domestique. Unless, of course, he first manages to drop Van der Poel himself…
Long story short: we can settle in for another treat, because chances are the big guns will serve up another spectacular finale, just as they did last year.
Past performances…
Statistically speaking, the odds of Van der Poel defending his title are slim. (Then again, he’s exactly the kind of rider capable of smashing such statistics.) To find the last rider to win Milan–San Remo twice in a row, we have to go back to 2001, when Erik Zabel did so, both times in a bunch sprint.
Bunch sprints themselves have become something of a rarity in Milan–San Remo in recent years. In 2016, Arnaud Démare was the last sprinter to prevail in a bunch sprint on the Via Roma. He followed John Degenkolb, who in turn had followed Alexander Kristoff.
Between 2018 and 2024 the Poggio repeatedly whittled the peloton down to almost nothing, often under the impetus of Pogacar. And when that failed to deliver victory: why not try from the Cipressa instead? You can bet that the same scenario will unfold again this year.
Among the riders still active, John Degenkolb (2015), Michał Kwiatkowski (2017), Julian Alaphilippe (2019), Wout van Aert (2020), Jasper Stuyven (2021), Matej Mohoric (2022), Jasper Philipsen (2024) and Mathieu van der Poel (2023, 2025) know what it takes to win La Primavera.
Favourites 2026 Milan–San Remo
***** Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar
**** Isaac del Toro, Filippo Ganna, Tom Pidcock
*** Jasper Philipsen, Matej Mohoric, Matthew Brennan
** Wout van Aert, Iván Romeo, Romain Grégoire, Tobias Lund Andresen
* Kaden Groves, Jonathan Milan, Danny van Poppel, Paul Magnier, Tim van Dijke
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